Delegates during the sessions of the IPCC, in Copenhagen this weekend. / KELD NAVNTOFT (AFP)
In every corner of the planet the impact of climate change is noticed. But it is in the less developed areas where their consequences threaten to be more dramatic. This is just a small part of the alerts that have just launched the world’s experts, especially politicians, during the presentation of the summary report published Sunday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme, the IPCC conducts periodic assessments of climate change impacts and the options out there to adapt or mitigate. The main target of their scientific studies are politicians.
This synthesis report, presented in Copenhagen, summarizes the findings of the triplet of papers presented at the last year and forming the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 , for its acronym in English) of the IPCC. Its 116 pages condense the work of six years by 830 scientists and is the bible of climate change. It states what is happening, who is to blame, what are the consequences for the future and how to stop or at least mitigate their impact on the planet.
“Our assessment concludes that the atmosphere and the Ocean have warmed, the snow and ice volumes have declined, sea level has risen and the concentrations of carbon dioxide have risen to unprecedented levels since at least 800,000 years, “said Thomas Stocker, Co-Chair of Working Group I of the IPCC, during the presentation of the report
The report emphasizes anthropogenic origin climate change
Although accumulating evidence has been growing in recent years, is in the AR5 which stated with more certainty than ever to anthropogenic climate change: “Emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic drivers have been the dominant cause of the warming observed since the mid-twentieth century, “the IPCC said in a note.
The impacts of climate change are already being felt in every continent and oceans. But, being a global phenomenon, its consequences are unevenly distributed. For various factors, such as geographical location, less developed or increased exposure to extreme warming events are societies and the poorest people who are suffering and will suffer more climate change and that they are the least to blame.
“Many of the most vulnerable to climate change and people have just helped contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases,” he explained in presenting the IPCC chairman RK Pachauri. “It will not be possible to address climate change if different actors put their own interests independently, only positive results will be achieved with collective responses, including international cooperation,” he added
We still have time.
The AR5 is not limited to describing the situation and draw a black picture. In fact, it is the most optimistic of the IPCC has published reports. . There is enough science and technology to adapt to the impacts of climate change and, what is more urgent, mitigate its scope
“We have the means to limit climate change,” Pachauri says, adding: ” The solutions are many and allow the continued economic and human development. All we need is the will to change, and we hope that this will be driven by knowledge and understanding of the science of climate change. “
Scientists believe that an economy based on low carbon plus possible economy is a sustainable business. The summary report concludes that estimates of the costs of mitigation, although variable, would not affect overall economic growth too. If nothing is done, it is estimated that the consumption indicator of economic growth, will grow between 1.6 and 3% annually over the century. With an ambitious mitigation that would limit warming to 2 ° C, these indices only about 0.06 percentage points is reduced.
“Compared to the imminent risk of irreversible impacts of climate change risks mitigation are reasonable, “says co-chair of Working Group III of the IPCC, devoted to studying how to combat climate change, Youba Sokona
Not much time left before the window of opportunity is closing, “Pachauri warns
But we must act now. The report notes that there are several ways to achieve substantial reductions needed to limit, with probability of success greater than 66%, warming to 2 ° C relative to pre-industrial emissions losniveles. However AR5 also warns that if mitigation Additional delay is 2030, considerably increase the technological, economic, social and institutional challenges to achieve this temperature aquellla century.
“We do not have much time left before the window of opportunity to remain in the margin of 2 ° C warming is closed, “Pachauri warns, adding:” To have a good chance of staying below 2 ° C at a reasonable cost, we should reduce emissions by 40 to 70% worldwide between 2010 and 2050 and decrease them to zero or negative level in 2100. We have the opportunity and the choice is in our hands. “
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