Leaders from around the world meet later this year in Paris to reach a global agreement to combat climate change with one goal: the global temperature not increase more than two degrees by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times (before 1880).
Understanding the keys to the most famous planetary desired goal and in environmental terms required to answer several questions, starting with the reason is negative to increase the temperature , especially in very cold areas of the world where it might be, a priori, something welcome.
The British physicist renowned professor the American Institute of Santa Fe Geoffrey West offers Efe a very simple explanation. “Everything in the world works by chemical reactions Chemical reactions depend on the temperature , so that by altering the temperature you change the chemical and thus the balance of the planet reactions. “
” Breaking the balance would lead to disaster, “he added.
A study by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Research on Impact Climate Carlo and Julia Jaeger determines that the first two degrees that amounted to “break” in the planetary balance was Professor William Nordhaus of Yale.
In two articles published in the 70 Norhabus he said to avoid worst impacts of climate change temperature should not increase more than two degrees, data signed later by the relevant scientific and officially assumed the objective of international climate negotiations Climate Summit in Cancun (Mexico) in 2010.
“The figure is not magic, it is a considerable amount when you consider that the global average temperature is 15 degrees “he told Efe the Spanish professor and vice chairman of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the UN, Jose Manuel Moreno.
As part of” a change and consequent risk “, scientists have made an assessment of what is” possible and desirable “and determined by consensus that two degrees is what can be taken” without the consequences are unbearable, “says Moreno.
“This figure is simply the level considered will not be of sufficient magnitude to jeopardize our existence and that of the agencies around us beyond accepted by everyone,” he added.
And is that a world with two degrees will suffer a huge amount of impact, “but still be manageable and manageable with adaptation actions,” said Efe the prestigious American scientist candidate to chair the IPCC, Christopher Field.
The climatologists agree that two degrees is still possible to “stabilize” the world , but are also in agreement that this limit will not prevent small islands uninhabitable by rising level the sea, extreme weather events more frequent and intense or has massive displacement, especially in coastal areas.
The latest IPCC report argues that we have already warmed 0.85 degrees above preindustrial and another study published by the World Bank in 2014 said the CO2 emitted and will raise that figure to 1.5 degrees.
No one doubts that keep the planet in no more than two degrees require strong commitment of all nations for deep decarbonization, which will require global emissions to be reduced by 40 to 70% by mid-century and are zero at the end, according to the IPCC.
effort required is enormous and that at current rates would overcome the two degrees in 2050 and “warming could exceed four degrees” in 2100, says Moreno.
So that everyone understands why can not exceed this limit, atmospheric scientist at Texas Tech University Katharine Hayhoe draws a parallel with the snuff: “How many cigarettes cause cancer? Nobody knows exactly how many, but the more you smoke the greater the risk. Climate change exceed two degrees is entering a highly risky territory. “
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