Leaders from around the world meet later this year in Paris to reach a global agreement to combat climate change with an objective: that the earth’s temperature not rising more than two degrees by the end of the century compared to the era preindustrial (before 1880).
Understanding the keys to the most famous and desired global goal in environmental terms required to respond to questions, beginning with why it is negative the temperature rises, especially in very cold areas of the world where, a priori, it could be something welcome.
The renowned British physicist and professor at the American Institute of Santa Fe Efe Geoffrey West offers a very simple explanation. “Everything in the world works by chemical reactions Chemical reactions are temperature dependent, so by altering the temperature you change the chemical and thus the equilibrium of the planet “reactions.
“Breaking the balance would lead to disaster,” he adds.
A study by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Julia Carlo Jaeger determines that the first two degrees that amounted to “break” in the planetary balance was Professor William Nordhaus of Yale.
In two articles published in the 70 Norhabus said that to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the temperature must not rise more than two degrees, then signed by the relevant scientific data and officially took aim of international climate negotiations in the Climate Summit in Cancun (Mexico) in 2010.
“The figure is not magic, it is a considerable amount when you consider that the average global temperature is 15 degrees, “he told Efe the Spanish professor and vice chairman of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the UN, Jose Manuel Moreno.
As part of “a change and consequent risk”, scientists have made an assessment that it is “possible and desirable” and determined by consensus that two degrees is what can be taken “without the consequences are unbearable, “says Moreno.
“This figure is simply the level considered will not be of sufficient magnitude to jeopardize our existence and that of the agencies around us beyond accepted by all,” he adds.
And it is a world with two degrees will suffer a huge amount of impact, “but still be manageable and manageable with adaptation actions,” said Efe the prestigious American scientist candidate to chair the IPCC, Christopher Field.
The climatologists agree that two degrees is still possible to “stabilize” the planet, although they are also in agreement that this limit will not prevent small islands uninhabitable by rising sea levels, that extreme weather events more frequent and intense or has massive displacement, especially in coastal areas.
The latest IPCC report argues that we have already warmed 0.85 degrees above the pre-industrial era, and another study published by the World Bank in 2014 said the CO2 emitted and will raise this figure to 1 5 degrees.
No one doubts that keep the planet in no more than two degrees will require a major commitment of all nations for deep decarbonization, which will require global emissions to be reduced by 40 to 70% half a century and they are zero at the end, according to the IPCC.
The effort required is enormous and that at current rates would overcome the two degrees in 2050 and “warming could exceed four degrees” in 2100, says Moreno.
So that everyone understands why can not exceed this limit, the atmospheric scientist at Texas Tech University Katharine Hayhoe draws a parallel with the snuff: “How many cigarettes cause cancer No one knows exactly how many? , but the more you smoke the greater the risk. In climate change exceed two degrees is entering a highly risky territory. ”
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