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scientists say heat waves, heavy rains and droughts will recur more often. Studying the polar vortex that hit U.S. Gallery.
Extreme weather events, such as the recent heat waves in Argentina and cold in the U.S., reopened the debate about whether they are events that occur as a result of climate change. “No you can attribute a particular event to climate change but the higher frequency of certain phenomena such as heat waves, extreme temperatures, heavy precipitation in humid areas (east, northeast and center of the country) and drought in the dry places” said meteorologist Rusticucci Matilde, director of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences and the Oceans of the Faculty of Natural Sciences coordinator UBA and authors of the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The projected by experts, according to mathematical models and climate observations, is that extreme heat wave that occurred once every 20 years, for example, in mid- century may be repeated every five or reiterated every year towards the end of the century.
In making these projections, scientists rely on climate models that reproduce through calculations and separate the effects generated by human intervention due to increased the emission of greenhouse gases, natural, such as volcanoes and the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth. “We put these two separate factors. When models calculated with natural purposes only, they can not reproduce the current climate and the amount of heat waves or existing extreme events. The only way to play is when anthropogenic effects are included. This is what leads to the conclusion that mankind is causing climate change, “he said.
In the U.S., those who distrust the evidence of global warming took the polar wave that there suffered this week, with temperatures of -45 ° C in some states, as an argument in its favor. Who came to respond was John Holdren, science adviser on climate of President Barack Obama: “If in the last few days have heard that extreme cold spells disprove the existence of climate change, do not believe.” He further argued that “although there are many factors that explain this phenomenon and the scientific debate in this area will continue in the coming years can be expected that as a result of climate change, more episodes of extreme cold occur in the middle latitudes.”
Although
Rusticucci observed a direct relationship between this wave and polar climate change, to ensure that skeptical arguments “one day with 0 ° does not mean that climate change does not exist, or that it 38th ever implies its presence. The climate changed, is not 50 years ago and it will not be the same in 50 years. ” Among these changes, the study found that in the summer country spread to the intermediate stations and winter temperatures have increased. “That does not mean that in the months of June, July and August it is not very cold days but fewer and fewer,” the expert said.
Adaptation. The studies are intended to warn and prevent the consequences of climate change. Thus, for Rusticucci “is important from the point of view of social and political be prepared. While this was an extreme heat wave, the frequency of these are growing and need more energy. ” About floods, Juan Carlos Villalonga, director of the Environmental Protection Agency of the City of Buenos Aires, said that “although it is undergoing extension as piped streams Vega and Moyano, the storm drains is early last century. Rising building and intense storms where it rains a lot in a short time make the system collapse. ” The maintenance of existing green spaces and the creation of green roofs to absorb water are other issues on the agenda to address climate change.
“We must act now”
Located debate on climate change, in Madrid BBVA Foundation announced its Frontiers of Knowledge Award in that category. The winner was American biologist Christopher Field, one of the scientists that has studied the impacts of climate change and strategies to adapt to it. “We must act now. If out action is not taken now, the future will be more complex and more expensive, and harder for us to succeed, “said Field from the Netherlands, where it is immersed in drafting the fifth report of the IPCC. Field, professor of biology at Stanford University, coordinates the work of hundreds of scientists and media with policymakers who must approve the report of the UN. On whether there is scientific evidence on the relationship between natural disasters and climate change, Field was cautious: “We know specifically heat waves and floods will be more frequent in many parts of the world, but on other factors such as the hurricanes do not know yet. “
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